Worcester voters delivered a stunning blow to the city council’s activist bloc Nov. 4, sending a moderate majority to City Hall next year. As the dust settles, the lessons are many.
The message
The first lesson is that voters want pragmatic leaders. Mayor Joe Petty, a center-left Democrat, handily defeated the left-wing Khrystian King in his bid for mayor. Petty and his allies campaigned on pragmatism and common sense, and voters responded to that message. King is part of a group of left-wing city councilors who embraced maximalist demands, such as rent control, which voters rejected.
A big part of the difference between the candidates was over how militant council members should be. The most conservative members of the incoming council are Democrats who would be considered center-left to moderate in many other cities.
Donna Colorio, the sole Republican, lost her bid to maintain her at-large seat, while former school committee member Jermoh Kamara, a pragmatic liberal, also failed to gain a seat. Moderate Moe Bergman maintained his, and the pro-business newcomer Satya Mitra won his bid. The difference between the highest and lowest number of votes each received is only 210, and each of these candidates took well over 9,000 votes. In the 2023 election, the at-large candidate who won with the lowest number of votes was Thu Nguyen – who only earned the support of 7,793 voters. Given these numbers, it is less likely that voters rejected Colorio than simply split among many options.
Upset in District 2
Two district races were upsets. Etel Haxhiaj in District 5 lost her race, as did District 2 council member Candy Mero-Carlson. Carlson’s loss is a surprise, given that she is aligned with other candidates Worcester voters overwhelmingly supported. There are a few plausible explanations.
The first reason for Mero-Carlson’s loss is likely not issue-based at all: the style of campaign. Hers was traditional, which worked for her in the past. In Worcester, the approach has long been to do a good job representing the district, effectively respond to constituents, make sure your name is known, and communicate through the mass media. Mero-Carlson did each effectively, but the breakdown and polarization of the media diluted her message.
Mero-Carlson didn’t lose any votes; in fact, she took in more than she did in the previous cycle. The problem is that her opponent, Rob Bilotta, increased his vote total by even more – about 45 percent. There was very little coverage of the race at all in the legacy media, and very few people read the partisan press that was sympathetic to him. It therefore makes sense to assume that his victory is attributable to his campaign’s methodology.
Bilotta singled out voters likely to be sympathetic to his message, contacting and mobilizing them to vote. Political science literature supports this method, calculating the increased likelihood of moving someone to vote through each form of contact. For this reason, this scientific method of campaigning, long embraced at the national level, has been gaining ground in recent years.
Beyond campaign tactics, there is a substantive issue that has significance beyond District 2. Bilotta and his allies were successful in tagging Mero-Carlson as the face of rising rent prices. As I argued previously, Bilotta’s policies would harm Worcester renters, while Mero-Carlson’s have benefited them. Mero-Carlson helped bring new housing to the city – but Bilotta’s convinced voters that this work harmed renters. That is untrue, but the proof will take years to show. Thus, the message that “your rent is too high and it’s Candy’s fault” mobilized support.
Worcester’s leaders will need to take note of this misunderstanding of economics. In a democracy, the people rule – so it is urgently necessary that they understand why well-intentioned policies often might not work and could even be detrimental. With the rise of alternative media amplifying emotional, economically unsubstantiated arguments, this isn’t a project for one candidate, but for everyone who cares.
District 5 race
Incumbent Haxhiaj lost for an entirely different reason. Haxhiaj campaigned the same way Bilotta did, and she had a similar message to Bilotta’s. Instead of campaigns and misinformation, Haxhiaj lost her race by creating high profile instances of chaos that drew the ire of voters.
For example, Haxhiaj and the departing at-large councilor Thu Nguyen led highly controversial protests that shut down City Council meetings over foreign relations and transphobia allegations. Many voters, including some of her former supporters, were appalled by what some have called Jan. 6-style protests.
Additionally, Haxhiaj joined a confrontation with ICE on Eureka Street. Numerous Worcester residents, including those sympathetic to undocumented immigrants, have pointed out that physically confronting ICE agents won’t stop federal deportation proceedings. Still others have argued that a standoff between federal agents and elected officials will place a bullseye on the city. Both this and the council shutdowns left voters viewing Haxhiaj as the “chaos candidate.”
Many Jews previously supportive of Haxhiaj were distressed that she refused to support a resolution merely condemning the murder and hostage-taking of Oct. 7 but later supported anti-Israel demonstrations, including the one she led at City Hall. She attended a demonstration at Worcester State University featuring a speaker who referred to “the Jews”, which Haxhiaj refused to condemn.
In short, Haxhiaj didn’t lose because she couldn’t get her message out. Instead, her tactics, maximalist positions, and indulgence of antisemitism were all rejected by voters. It is worth noting that, even though Haxhiaj increased the number of votes she received due to higher turnout, Rivera, her opponent, won with more votes than she ever received.
The new council
The incoming city council, led by Petty, is a left-center coalition with no Republicans and one independent, Rivera. The moderates have the majority, with Bilotta and King in the liberal camp, and Luis Ojeda between them and the political center.
The moderates will now be able to govern without their colleagues inspiring bouts of chaos, but all is not necessarily easy sailing. The city is still in an unprecedented population boom, which leads to high housing costs. It continues to be plagued by the problems of homelessness, older infrastructure, and other such issues, all playing out against the less-than-optimal national backdrop. These issues take time to fix – and the legitimate reasons for that need to be explained to voters.
That’s not going to be an easy task.
